Re: AMD64 sales figures

From: JF Mezei (jfmezei.spamnot_at_istop.com)
Date: 10/03/03 

Date: Fri, 03 Oct 2003 05:39:59 -0400

Andrew Harrison SUNUK Consultancy wrote:
> MS only needs one 64bit desktop architecture it doesn't need two.

If Intel is forced to continue development of IA64 even if it releases a 64
bit 8086 to compete against AMD, it is likely that Intel will fund Microsoft's
continued support of Windows on IA64.

On the other hand, once Carly is booted out of office, perhaps her replacement
will acknowledge that IA64 is to be relegated only to large servers
(essentially the same fate as Alpha) and that they will focus Windows on
commodity 64 bit chips (aka 8086). As soon as this is said, Microsoft will
stop developping for iA64 and focus on 32 and 64 bit 8086.

The big motivation for intel to go 64 bit is this:

Once Intel starts to produce 64 bit 8086s, Microsoft and others will start to
produce software that runs only on 64 bit machines. TYhis, like the Windows95
upgrades as well as Y2K will generate a big boom in computer sales since
people will need to upgrade hardware in order to get the latest version of
Word. This will be good for Microsoft and good for AMD and Intel.

As long as Intel continues to produce 32 bit 8086s whose performance is more
than needed for average users, then the need to upgrade machines/hardware will
be very low. The minute Intel stops making 32 bit 8086s, everyone will be
forced to upgrade in order to keep up with the jones'

The logical thing for Intel to do is to plan its 64 bit 8086 so it can have
the features such as lockstep etc required by large/serious systems. Once that
is available on the 8086, then Intel can put Ia64 out of its misery and
everyone concentrate on the 8086 which will be what Carly and Curly had
wanted: a commodity chip.

to Hoff and the other engineers: When Curly announced the murder of Alpha, we
were told here that the VMS engineers were as surprised as we were and that
they had had no advance warnings. Well, this time around, I think that the
writing is on the wall. As time progresses, it is less and less likely that
IA64 will survive in the face of a 64 bit commodity 8086 chip.

If IA64 supports EFI, what does AMD's 64 bit 8086 use as console software ?
Would/will intel copy AMD's console or would Intel use EFI for its 64 bit 8086 ?

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Portents of Itanium death
    ... greater chance of becoming commodity than IA64 which has lost its chance. ... Short term stuff, yes, that si what you expect from a wall street analysts. ... management essentially taking Digital's profits and handing them to Microsoft ... What this means is that Intel is far more profitable than alaysts are seing, ...
    (comp.os.vms)
  • Re: Time to revive Emerald?
    ... Intel for that IA64 thing and had a vested interest not to publicly appear to ... > the 32-bit CPU business and probably don't see AMD as a threat. ... If you make the bulk of the profits on the high end chps which represent 10% ...
    (comp.os.vms)
  • Re: Curly soon to be out of a job
    ... > There is a big difference between Power and IA64: ... > scalability features that IA64 has, then Intel can probably still ... > But if AMD makes its 8086 scalable to wildfire/superdome class ...
    (comp.os.vms)
  • Re: AMDs well may be running dry
    ... And if it is to mean it has negative cash flow, does that factor in the subsidies from HP and others (like that 3 billion transfer HP made to Intel in 2004 along with its IA64 engineers)? ... However, if, as you say "the gloves are off", then this has impacts on IA64 in a more important way: AMD made major inreads in the last 2 years because it surpassed Intel in producy performance. ... And when margins go down due to competition, it also means that Intel has to streamline its own house and reallocate resources that would be less productive. ...
    (comp.os.vms)
  • Re: Heads Up: Intel to axe 20,000 jobs
    ... If Intel is losing money on IA64 (which one Intel exec already admitted ... IIf it feels that neither HP-UX nor VMS have long term growth ...
    (comp.os.vms)