Re: New itaniums out at 2.5x perform gain

Bill Gunshannon wrote:
In article <44BFC335.32AEF7E8@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
JF Mezei <jfmezei.spamnot@xxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
Bill Gunshannon wrote:
And exactly why wold they announce that they were moving VMS to x86-64
rather than just announcing that they are concentrating on their real
business, Windows boxes, and pulling the plug on VMS?
Pride and money.

Lets look at pride: HP has to admit IA64 was a big mistake, but to make
up for it, it promises to port all its IA64 based systems to the 8086.

Too late for that. Intel already publicly admited it was a mistake and
if they had the chance to go back they wouldn't have done it. And they
have never promised to port VMS to anything beyond IA64.

That one statement from Intel is the worst thing I've seen since the killing of Alpha. As the desire in Intel grows to dump the itanic, the arguments to do so will grow, and it will happen.

Lets look at money:
First, porting VMS to the 8086 should be less expensive than Alpha to
IA64. They now have setup the abililty to have common code base, cleaned
up the code to make porting easier, AND have already gotten the EFI
stuff installed and running on VMS. So the port to the 8086 should cost
less and take less time.

Your smokin' again. There is little that has been made public so far that
would lead one to believe that because they ported VMS to IA64 it is now
somehow easier to port it to x86-64. The two have little if anything in
common, architecturally.

There have been more than a few things mentioned. Moving hardware capabilities into code within VMS and things like that.

Also, while the IA64 port may have been a surprise to all but a very few
VMS engineers, the writing has been on the wall for years now that the
8086 is (unfortunatly) the way to go,

And yet HP has never even hinted at th possibility of porting VMS to
x86-64. As a matter of fact, HP people here have constantly stated
it was not going to happen.

Small correction, they have stated that it was not currently happening or in planning. They don't have the authority to state that it will not happen.

and I would be very disapointed if
nobody within VMS engineering had taken a serious look at what it would
take.

My guess is they would look at it as soon as HP paid them to. Being
as they have repeatedly stated, right here, that there is no x86 port
in the works, why would any of them take the time to" look at what it
would take"?

Such a port is far from a 'midnight projects' thing.

I would also not be surprised if the folks at HP-UX, NSK and VMS had
talks with Intel on what features they might need in the 8086 to make
porting much easier. Such features are likely to appear in the 2007 timeframe.

Why would Intel care? Their only interest right now is figuring out
how to catch back up to AMD. If VMS, HP-UX and NSK go belly up
tomorrow, it doesn't affect Intel's bottom line. Of course, that
IA64 boat anchor does!!

Gee, sounds like many of my posts from the 2001-2004 time frame.

I fail to see the logic int his. IA64 is costing them buckets of
money. Cance3ling it would end stop the bleeding and let them cut
even more jobs making them look even better to the Casino Analysts.
It all ddpends on what sort of contracts were signed. Remember that HP
sent 3 billion bucks to Intel not too long ago (along with its remaining
chip engineers), and is also building that 10 billion fund allegedly to
help port software to that IA64 contraption. This may be structured in
such a way that you cannot cancel IA64 until a certain date.

Still smokin'. No one knows what this mythical agreement said or even
if there really is one. Of course, it could just as easily have been
an agreement to pay Intel the 10 billion dollars as reparations for
the damage keeping that IA64 thing alive this long has done.

That's correct.

My theory is just as believable (and verifiable) as yours.

Also, in 2004 when Carly would have set this in motion, it is likely
that she would have wanted to keep the door open should, by miracle,
IA64 become popular. "Give it a couple of years and then can it".

Sure glad they don't let that weed you smoke over the border.

None left after JF gets to it.

Should Intel kill IA64 prematurely, it might cost Intel mega bucks to
compensate HP, much more than paying a few engineers to thinker with the
contraption and produce a faster one every couple of years.

Not knowing what was in any of the agreements between them, it is really
impossible to say who would end out owing who if IA64 gets killed.


You keep assuming that they have any plan or even desire to migrate VMS
any further. If that were likely, considering how long it can take to
go from desire to a viable commercial product, the work would have already
begun.
Yes, it had begun and was happening in the basement of ZKO, until I
uncovered it and they quickly replaced the office furniture with
sporting equipment, removing any traces that there was ever a covert
porting effort going on :-) :-) ;-)

Keep smokin'......

You can count on it. :-)

The VMS engineers have all the tools already to manage a porting effort.

Now there's another big assumption on your part. Being as they have
repeatedly said there is no port to x86-64, why would HP have paid
for all these tools?

If, in 2007, Intel/HP announce the end of the line for IA64, it will
probably includd one more iteration of that "thing" and last a few
years,

Nobody is buying it now, who would buy it if they announced it was a
deadend? Any further "iteration" would just be money down the toilet.

during which VMS can be ported.

And during all this time you think the IT and business world is just going
to stand still? You thhink MS won't be out there raiding what is left of
HP's customers? Or Sun? Or IBM? Or any of dozen Linux brokers?

(this is where the killing of
Alpha sales at this point in time is a very wrong mistake).

Maybe, but it is a done deal as well.

This is a business decision. If the decision was changed, continuing to manufacture and sell the current Alphas is definitely doable from a technical perspective.

Face it, toy controller or high end chip, the 8086 is solid as a rock
with no rumours of it going away anytime soon. Move VMS to the 8086,
and you all once and for all any rumours of VMS's demise because as long
as it is profitable, there is no reason to kill it. And customers having
more confidence in a VMS rejuvenation will stay or buy in to VMS and
you'll see real growth.

Keep on smokin'......


Right now, the sad reality is that a weakened VMS is using its last
energies to try to support IA64. Move to 8086 and it is the strong 8086
(in the marketplace) that will help and support VMS and let it grow.

IA64 is a liability to VMS. 8086 would be an asset to VMS.

Probably way too little, way too late. But in any event, it isn't even
a blip on the radar and businesses are not going to wait around to see
what comes next. If we are truly seeing the last hurrah for IA64 then
we should be very concerned about the future of VMS.

Very!

--
David Froble Tel: 724-529-0450
Dave Froble Enterprises, Inc. E-Mail: davef@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
DFE Ultralights, Inc.
170 Grimplin Road
Vanderbilt, PA 15486
.

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