Re: New Zealnders now laughing at global warming

On May 19, 9:49 am, b...@xxxxxxxxxxx (Bill Gunshannon) wrote:
In article <464e54ac$0$21929$157c6...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
"Dr. Dweeb" <s...@xxxxxxxxx> writes:


.................. Lessons learned
(well, obviously nothing has been learned, but this is what those willing
to learn learned)? Nature will adapt. Man often misses the reality
by focusing on the wrong thing. The scientific method has been abandoned
in favor of politics which bring in much more grant money.


I apologise for the fact that this post is OT, I just felt that I
had to put in my 2 cents worth.

Although your post was interesting, I am not sure what the point
was. I don't think that any of the proponents of AGW are
predicting that there is going to be some kind of ecological disaster,
(although there will undoubtably be casualties in the natural
world).

Such an argument would carry little if any weight anyway since most of
the world's populations are fairly apathetic, if not actually
indifferent, to the fate of the world's flora and fauna. (Look for
example at the fate of the Dodo, the Great Auk, the Tasmanian Wolf,
and for that matter, native tasmanians, not just bugs, or weeds, but
significant species, all of which were allowed to be predated until
they were no longer viable. At which point they all went extinct --
and within the last 150 years.)

And so long as the main effects are not expected to occur until after
they are dead, then they see it as some one else's problem. It has
always been like that, and I suspect it will always be like that.
(Human nature I suppose).

Governments will never legislate a response to these situations
because the required steps will either make them unpopular, or will
require people (and/or industries/Corporations) to change their way of
doing things (which will make them unpopular). Because of these
constraints, any legislation they do create is fairly insipid, and
full of so many holes that there is a cop-out for everyone.

In Europe, a family car which does not give at least 45 miles/gal
would be a non-starter, not because Europeans and particulary eco-
friendly, but primarily because gas costs the equivalent of ~$6-7 per
gallon, and has for about the last 10 years. As a result, almost
all family cars are 4-cylinders with capacities less than 2
litres.

The US government recently proposed that the Motor industries had to
meet a fuel efficiency standard requiring that cars had to get ~35 mpg
(not sure of the exact number) however it contained so many exclusions
i.e. SUV, Pickups, etc. etc., and since ~60% of Americans drive either
an SUV or a Pickup, what does it acheive.

To get back to my original point, there is almost certainly NOT going
to be an ecological disaster. Nature - as you so rightly point out -
will adapt.

The point that most people are missing is that the disaster is going
to be predominantly human. As was pointed out, New Orleans is
actually below sea-level, so to is Venice Italy. Areas like
Bangladesh and florida (south of Orlando) average ~4-5' above sea
level, (in the Florida Keys, the average is ~3' above sea level.
These areas currently flood intermittently, i.e. Bangladesh during the
monsoon, and Florida/New Orleans during climatic events like
Hurricanes, but although these events result in mass evacuations,
they are generally looked on as temporary.

If AGW causes a rise in sea level of only 5' then these areas become
basically a collection of small islands, so what happens to the 300M
people in Bangladesh, or the 10 million people in Southern
Florida. All in all, a 5' rise in global sea levels will create ~1
Billion refugees, or displaced persons - where do they go in an
already crowded world.

It is questionable whether the human race can do anything at this
point which will avert the oncoming disaster. What people are
really trying to push is the idea that we have to make a start
somewhere, just to try to minimize or mitigate the effects.

If AGW is real, the rate at which the ice will melt will not be
constant, it will increase exponentially. It might be only 2-3-4-5
feet by the end of the century, but it will be likely 50 feet by year
2200. If all of the ice melts then we (or at least our decendents)
will be facing sea levels which are 200 feet higher.

Again, if AGW is real, corrective actions will not be effective
overnight. Efforts made now will not make any difference for
probably 50 years, but that doesn't mean it isn't worth the effort.

Finally, the arguments about whether AGW is a 'real' problem are truly
stupid. There is very little argument about whether the extended
release of Greenhouse gases is good or bad for the world. Most
agree that it is bad. So why not stop it anyway. That way if
AGW is real, we have at least done what we can, and if it is not, they
we did a good thing anyway.

Its kind of like the argument about smoking. I think that most
people (even most smokers) agree that not smoking is better. So in
stead of arguing whether it is good or bad for people, why not just
stop anyway.

Dave.



.

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